Allocating and taxing rights to state-owned minerals

Is Indonesia using the most effective possible strategies to derive revenue from its mineral resources? Auctions and work program bidding are the main ways of allocating mineral leases. In addition to the company taxes applied to all companies, governments can raise revenue from minerals owned by the state through auctions, royalties and rent taxes paid by private firms, and through dividends from state-owned firms. Indonesia uses work program bidding to allocate leases, and its production-sharing contracts are roughly equivalent to a rent tax at a high rate. This paper considers these options for raising revenues from mineral resources. It argues that efficiency and government revenue would both be increased if Indonesia relaxed direct controls on the operations of mining companies, and allocated leases by means of auctions, combined with a much lower rate of rent tax or, better still, a royalty.     

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

The real interest rate parity hypothesis is tested using data for the group of seven industrialized countries (G7) over the period 1970–2008. The contribution is two‐fold. First, the paper utilizes the bounds approach in order to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, a test is made for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using a multiple structural breaks test. The results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.     

Going overboard? On busy directors and firm value

The literature disagrees on the link between so-called busy boards (where many independent directors hold multiple board seats) and firm performance. Some argue that busyness certifies a director’s ability and that such directors are value enhancing. Others argue that “over-boarded” directors are ineffective and detract from firm value. We find evidence that (1) the disparate results in prior work stem from differences in both sample composition and empirical design, (2) on balance the results suggest a negative association between board busyness and firm performance, and (3) the inclusion of firm fixed effects dramatically affects the conclusions drawn from, and the explanatory power of, multivariate analyses. We also explore alternative empirical definitions of what constitutes a busy director and find that commonly used proxies for busyness perform well relative to more complex alternatives.     

Financial structure and the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy across industries

The two general channels by which monetary policy impacts output are the neo-classical cost of capital channel and the credit channel. This paper decomposes the output response to a change in the stance of monetary policy to each of these channels. We use a unique industry level data set that measures the financial characteristics of firms operating at the industry level through time. We bring these financial characteristics formally into the regression analysis, thus allowing for a more precise identification of the two channels. The evidence indicates that both channels are active in the Canadian economy.     

The Economic Effects of Removing Barriers to Trade in Telecommunications

This paper quantifies the impact on the economies of the world of complete liberalisation of trade in a key services sector, telecommunications, using a global general equilibrium model. Barriers to trade in telecommunications are highest in developing regions and lowest in developed regions. The paper uses new estimates of these barriers for telecommunications. The results indicate that completely liberalising trade in telecommunications would benefit the world as a whole in terms of increased production by 0.1 per cent. Although the distribution of gains among regions is not even, most regions are projected to gain from liberalising trade in telecommunications. In general, the regions with the highest barriers benefit most. The analysis demonstrates that commercial presence of foreign firms via foreign direct investment is an important mode of delivering telecommunications.     

Detecting log-periodicity in a regime-switching model of stock returns

Log-periodic precursors have been identified before most and perhaps all financial crashes of the Twentieth Century, but efforts to statistically validate the leading model of log-periodicity, the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette (JLS) model, have generally failed. The main feature of this model is that log-harmonic fluctuations in financial prices are driven by similar fluctuations in expected daily returns. Here we search more broadly for evidence of any log-periodic variation in expected daily returns by estimating a regime-switching model of stock returns in which the mean return fluctuates between a high and a low value. We find such evidence prior to the two largest drawdowns in the S&P 500 since 1950. However, if we estimate a log-harmonic specification for the stock index for the same time periods, fixing the frequency and critical time according to the results of the regime-switching model, the parameters do not satisfy restrictions imposed by the JLS model.     

Construction of an economic index to measure the causes of economic insecurity

This paper is an updated study on the causes of economic insecurity in the United States. The authors have constructed an aggregate composite index that measures objectively the major causes of economic insecurity (CEI) in the United States. The CEI index consists of 11 variables that can cause economic insecurity. The time period under investigation is 1960 through 2001. A rising CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity in the United States have increased in relative importance, which results in an increase in economic insecurity. Conversely, a falling CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity have declined in relative importance, which results in a reduction of economic insecurity. However, despite substantial economic growth in the American economy from 1960 through 2001, the CEI index overall showed little improvement. The major conclusion is that the CEI index was 9 percent higher in 2001 than it was in 1960. This result was due largely to the increase in divorce, violent crime, rising out-of-pocket expenditures for health care, inflation, and unemployment. The results for subperiods are dramatically different, and we think more interesting, than the overall results. During the 1960s, there was a small decline in the CEI index. The 1970s showed a dramatic increase in the CEI index, which reflected both high unemployment rates and inflation rates during this period. The 1980s experienced fluctuating levels in the index but little overall change, and the 1990s experienced a sharp decline in the CEI index due largely to a robust economy. The CEI index has increased more recently, which reflects largely the recent 2001 business recession. The correlation coefficient of the CEI index with the University of Michigan's well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment is ?676. This figure shows that as the CEI index rises, consumer sentiment about the American economy becomes pessimistic and negative.